The possible scenarios for Bulgaria's membership of the EU

Plan A is the most optimistic. It is the easiest and simplest option: Bulgaria joins the EU on 1st January, 2007 according to schedule, with no safeguard clauses, additional conditions and modifications. The government still hopes this scenario is possible.

Plan B: according to schedule but with modifications. Under this scenario Sofia receives its EU membership card on time but with one or two restrictive clauses. These are the so-called “small clauses”, which concern the internal market and the mutual recognition of decisions in the field of criminal law. There are two possibilities for their invocation: before accession of the country, on the basis of the monitoring findings; or in the first three years after accession if problems arise with the country`s membership.

Plan C: postponement until 2008. This scenario is possible in case the EU member states decide to apply the big safeguard clause, which provides for postponing the candidate country`s membership to January 1st, 2008, if they decide that the country is poorly prepared and may put at risk the interests of the community.

Plan D: postponement plus safeguard clauses. This is the worst-case scenario. Under it the candidate country will not only lose a whole year and join the EU on January 1st, 2008; it will also be restricted by one or two safeguard measures concerning the market and/or judicial system.